Last week the CTF wrote the Finance Minister imploring him to table a budget this November instead of his customary economic statement. While no official response has come from the Minister' office, if one reads the tea leaves of Ottawa correctly, evidence is surfacing that the Minister will likely acquiesce and give the nation a full accounting of Canada's present and future prospects for growth and spending in the post-September 11th world.

To start, Minister Martin went on the National news this week to talk about Canada's effort to freeze bank accounts and assets of terrorist front organizations. In response to questions, the Minister climbed down from his disdain for a fall budget by stressing the fluidity of current economic developments south of the border.

But he also stressed - in code - that his officials were prudently gathering all data that if needed, could form the foundation of a budget document. When pressed on the costs to the public purse as Canada prosecutes the war on terrorism here at home through new public security measures, the Minister noted that he was still getting a handle on these costs and that "obviously," there would have be to a reordering of national expenditure priorities.

It is clear that the Minister is softening Canadians for a budget. Fine, it that's what it is required in the theatre of political messaging, as long as taxpayers get a full budget , then the Machiavellian strategists at Finance and the PMO can play their silly games.

However, this theatre is of interest only to pundits, for taxpayers what really matter are the principles and priorities, which will underpin any budget document. Clearly, public security is now at the top of the policy agenda. There is no doubt that a more realistic and results based approach to border controls, better refugee screening, intelligence gathering, increased policing and a host of other measures will cost us, perhaps as high as $5 billion.

This money should be found through reallocation from existing budget envelopes. Before September 11th, the feds had already chewed into the anticipated $7.2 billion surplus to the tune of $3 billion (minimum) in unbudgeted spending. A deficit scenario should not be considered.

Instead, money should be moved from low priority areas such as corporate welfare, Brian Tobin's innovation agenda, the disastrous gun registry, questionable culture funding at Canadian Heritage or the boondoggle granting activities of the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council.

As well, plans for tax relief must remain untouched and on track. The bulk of the promised $100 billion tax cut ($47 billion in real dollars when adjustments are made for bracket creep, CPP taxes and spending programs wrongly called tax cuts) is back-end loaded for the 2002 - 2005 period. When the slowdown (read: U.S. induced recession) really hits us hard after Christmas, tax relief will provide important fiscal stimulus for the Canadian economy.

Finally, the Minister must avoid temptation. This includes a blanket refusal for multi-billion dollar airline aid packages (the $160 million contribution should be Ottawa's first and only contribution) or convoluted sales tax suspension schemes as some backbench Liberals and irresponsible big city Mayors have urged. If the government is to consider further fiscal stimulus through tax cuts, income tax cuts (personal and corporate) and capital gains tax reductions would be much more helpful and sustainable over the long term.

As for a potential fall budget date, circle November 20th of 27th on your calendars - we have.